The impact of demographic factors on economic dynamics: methodological approaches to optimization

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between demographic shifts and the trajectory of economic growth, labor productivity, and savings rates. It examines quantitative relationships between the age structure of the population, migration flows, fertility rates, and gross domestic product per capita in countries with different rates of aging. The empirical base covers data from Rosstat, Eurostat, the UN, and the World Bank for 1995–2024 for 42 countries. The methodology combines panel regression with fixed effects, decomposition of growth by source, and calculation of the demographic dependency ratio adjusted for healthy longevity. The author proposes a modified approach to optimizing the demographic contribution through a three–oop scheme: employment of older ages, migration selection by occupation, and targeted support for second– and third–order births. The contribution of the demographic component to annual GDP growth was found to vary between minus 0.8 and plus 1.4 percentage points, with the effect of aging partially offset by the growth of human capital by approximately 0.3 percentage points. The results show that ignoring demographic parameters in macroeconomic forecasts leads to an average overestimation of potential output over a ten}year horizon of 6–9 percent. The findings are applicable for calibrating long–term socioeconomic development strategies.