Directions for optimizing factors of economic impact on demographic processes

The impact of the economy on demographics is usually examined through individual measures: cash payments, mortgage programs, employment support, and healthcare spending, this approach loses the main point: a single measure may be beneficial, yet fail to address the root cause of demographic changes in a particular region. This work is devoted to identifying a framework that allows us to match an economic instrument with the nature of regional demographic risks. The analysis is based on data from Rosstat, the provisions of the federal strategy for family and demographic policy, and publications about Russian regions for 2017–2025. Income, employment, housing, medical care, and social services are considered not as a general list of factors, but as different conditions influencing the population’s decision–making. For migration, available jobs and the cost of living are significant; for having children — a combination of income, housing, and the ability to maintain employment; for mortality — the timeliness and accessibility of care. The author assumes that expanding the list of benefits without prior diagnostics of the territory is not optimization. An analysis procedure is proposed: identify the predominant demographic change, establish the associated economic constraint, select a measure, and assess its effect within a timeframe appropriate to the nature of the process. The result of the work can be used when reviewing regional programs.

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